A recent survey conducted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and YouGov has brought to light the sentiments of the Indian-American community regarding US-India relations under a potential second administration of former President Donald Trump. While optimism prevails about India’s prospects, anxiety looms over the future of diplomatic ties with the United States should Trump reclaim the presidency in 2024.
The survey, known as the 2024 Indian-American Survey, obtained responses from a nationally representative group of 1,206 adult residents of Indian origin in the US. This study comes after significant political events in both India and the United States, notably Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting in February, where they lauded each other’s leadership despite some criticisms regarding trade policies. A particular concern has been the rise in scrutiny of India following a US federal indictment against Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, alongside allegations of an Indian-sponsored assassination plot on American soil.
In evaluating US-India relations, the survey revealed a distinct partisan divide. Among Indian-American Republicans, a majority (66%) believe Trump is more beneficial for bilateral ties, while a mere 8% of Democrats share this view. Ultimately, with the demographic majority of Indian Americans leaning towards the Democratic Party, President Joe Biden inadvertently received higher favorability ratings for his handling of US-India relations over Trump’s first term. Half of the Indian-American Democrats showed strong support for Biden when assessing bilateral ties, contrasting with the modest 15% of Republicans who favored him.
The survey also highlighted rocky issues impacting bilateral conversations, including a murky incident in which a former Indian intelligence officer was charged by the US for allegedly plotting to assassinate a Sikh activist. Despite the gravity of the situation, only half of the respondents were knowledgeable about the case, raising questions about the community’s engagement with such pivotal concerns. Responses indicated divided opinions on whether India would have justifiably acted similarly if the roles were reversed.
In addition, the survey touched upon attitudes towards the ongoing Israel-Palestinian conflict, revealing further partisan split among Indian Americans with Democrats leaning towards supporting Palestinian positions while Republicans exhibited a pro-Israel stance.
Notably, the poll indicates a brightening outlook among Indian Americans about India’s trajectory, with nearly half believing the country is moving in the right direction, even as they maintain cautious dispositions regarding Trump’s foreign policy prowess. The complexity lies in their admiration for Prime Minister Modi, who remains a singular figure of support amidst concerns regarding US-India ties under Trump’s potential presidency.
This nuanced perspective illustrates the duality within the Indian-American community, who express both allegiance to Modi’s agenda and skepticism towards Trump’s potential impact on India’s relationship with the US. Such findings reveal deep-rooted sentiments worth considering in the upcoming election cycle as Indian Americans navigate their political affiliations and implications for future US-India relations.