In March, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made the controversial decision to abandon a ceasefire initiative brokered by Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff. This ceasefire had been seen as a pivotal moment towards peace, facilitating the release of dozens of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The easing of hostilities was a beacon of hope for many tired of the ongoing conflict. However, Netanyahu opted for increased military action against Hamas, declaring that the fighting would persist until Hamas was fully dismantled as a strategic move that many critics deemed politically motivated.
The decision sparked outrage among Israelis, especially families of hostages, who felt their loved ones’ safety was secondary to Netanyahu’s political ambitions. In the wake of declining approval ratings and internal discontent, Netanyahu found himself battling not just Hamas, but deep distrust within his own constituency. However, following military successes against Iran, he seems to be pondering early elections to consolidate power.
Netanyahu recently emphasized that his government is uniquely positioned to secure the return of hostages and eliminate Hamas. Contrarily, recent polls suggest that his grip on public trust is precarious; 59% of Israelis desire an immediate end to the conflict in exchange for hostages, with nearly half believing political motives are driving the Prime Minister’s actions. Professor Tamar Hermann highlights that while Netanyahu is arguably Israel’s most skilled politician, his continually shifting stance has eroded public confidence, demonstrated by him failing to achieve even partial trust from a significant proportion of the population.
With Netanyahu potentially eyeing another term amidst his continued military engagements, the inclusion of Donald Trump’s previous diplomatic efforts in the region adds a complex layer to his political narrative. Should Netanyahu decide to call early elections, he faces a monumental risk, as the political landscape remains uncertain. The dynamics relating to Trump’s involvement and the contemporary Middle Eastern situation could play a pivotal role in shaping both Netanyahu’s future and that of Israel as a whole.