As the 9 July deadline set by US President Donald Trump draws near, the ambitious India-US trade deal appears to be facing significant hurdles. Initially touted as a “big, beautiful” agreement, hopes for reaching an interim pact between the two nations remain alive but are increasingly challenged by fierce negotiations.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has suggested that an agreement could be imminent, while Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman expressed optimism for a “big, good, beautiful” arrangement, reflecting Trump’s earlier claims that a trade deal would “open up” the Indian market. Despite this optimism, negotiators remain locked in tough discussions as key sticking points still loom large.
One of the most contentious issues is agricultural access. The US has long sought greater access to the Indian market for basic agricultural products, aiming to tap into what is seen as a major, untapped market. However, India has staunchly protected its agricultural sector, prioritizing food security and the livelihoods of millions of small farmers, which complicates negotiations.
Further complicating matters are terms related to tariffs, particularly on Indian steel and auto components, as well as issues surrounding non-tariff barriers. The US has raised concerns about India’s increasing set of Quality Control Orders (QCO), which impose strict regulations on imports, potentially making it difficult for US goods to enter the Indian market. These regulations are viewed by American officials as significant obstacles to market access and may pose challenges to establishing a meaningful trade deal.
Ajay Srivastava, a former Indian trade official, suggested that the next week could be pivotal in determining whether the two nations can agree on a limited “mini-deal” or if they will part ways without an agreement for the time being. The outlook remains optimistic but precarious as negotiators struggle to find common ground amid what some describe as “very big red lines” laid out by India on various sensitive issues, particularly in the agriculture sector.