Germany is witnessing a seismic shift in its political landscape as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has cemented its position as a major player following recent elections. The mainstream conservative party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, has won the largest share of votes, but it’s the AfD that has garnered unprecedented support, now reaching second place in the Bundestag. This marks a significant turning point in German politics, where the traditionally outcast AfD has doubled its vote share from 2021, reflecting a broader trend of rising far-right sentiments across Europe.
In Sunday’s election, the AfD received a notable 20.3% of the vote, propelling it to new heights and making it the largest opposition party in the Bundestag. The uptick in AfD support is most pronounced in eastern Germany, where its anti-immigrant rhetoric and economic discontent have resonated fiercely among voters in regions facing stagnation and high unemployment rates. Nevertheless, its appeal has not been confined to the east, with gains also seen in western constituencies.
Alice Weidel, co-leader of the AfD, expressed her party’s confidence, stating, “We have never been stronger – we are the second-biggest force.” This surge has significant ramifications for the political dialogue in Germany, as mainstream parties will now likely have to reevaluate their positions on contentious issues like immigration.
A crucial aspect of this election is the influence of external factors, notably the support that the AfD received from individuals aligned with the former Trump administration. Merz has openly criticized US interference in Germany’s election, citing the involvement of high-profile figures who have rallied behind the AfD. He stated, “These interventions are no less dramatic and drastic than those we have seen from Moscow.” This raises urgent questions about how American political dynamics and figures may shape German politics moving forward.
The fallout from the elections extends to Merz and the CDU’s strategic positioning. Historically viewed as a stable, centrist party, the CDU is now contemplating a rightward pivot to counter the AfD’s rising influence. This approach, however, carries substantial risks; aligning more closely with right-wing stances could alienate moderate supporters who may view such a shift as inauthentic. As Loomes points out, “If the CDU positions itself in this space, it risks being perceived as a less authentic version of the AfD.”
Amid these transformations, the AfD is set on breaking the “firewall” that has historically kept it from gaining power. Party leaders are convinced that the established norms against collaborations with extremist parties will erode. The CDU’s potential reliance on the AfD for legislative support on issues such as immigration has initiated discussions about how these dynamics may evolve in the future.
Merz’s leadership will need to balance appeasing the rising far-right while maintaining a coalition with other centrist parties, most notably the Social Democrats (SPD), which performed poorly in the elections. As coalition discussions begin, differing views on key policy matters, particularly regarding foreign policy and Germany’s relationship with the US, may pose significant challenges.
In this changing political climate, the CDU’s reassertion of traditional conservative policies will intersect with a more aggressive far-right agenda. The mayors of Europe now cast their eyes towards Berlin, amid growing concerns regarding European security and autonomy as the Trump administration’s stance continues to evolve, particularly concerning Ukraine.
The road ahead for Merz will not only focus on domestic politics but must account for foreign relations, especially the need for a robust and united European stance amid shifting transatlantic dynamics. With voters looking for solutions to pressing issues and the AfD positioning itself as a major voice, the coming years will be defining for Germany and its approach to extremism, integration, and global relationships.